NOWCASTING GDP OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: A COMPARISON OF FORECAST ACCURACY MODELS

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Ademir Abdić Emina Resić Adem Abdić Adnan Rovčanin

Abstract

The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.

Article Details

How to Cite
Abdić, A., Resić, E., Abdić, A., & Rovčanin, A. (2020). NOWCASTING GDP OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: A COMPARISON OF FORECAST ACCURACY MODELS. The South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 15(2), 1-14. Retrieved from http://journal.efsa.unsa.ba/index.php/see/article/view/1219
Section
Scientific and Professional papers: Economics and Business
Author Biographies

Ademir Abdić, School of Economics and Business, University of Sarajevo

(Corresponding author)
Assistant Professor
School of Economics and Business,
University of Sarajevo
E-mail: ademir.abdic@efsa.unsa.ba
Address: Trg oslobođenja - Alija Izetbegović 1,
71000, Sarajevo, Bosna i Hercegovina

Emina Resić, School of Economics and Business, University of Sarajevo

Professor
School of Economics and Business,
University of Sarajevo
E-mail: emina.resic@efsa.unsa.ba

Adem Abdić, School of Economics and Business, University of Sarajevo

Assistant Professor
School of Economics and Business,
University of Sarajevo
E-mail: adem.abdic@efsa.unsa.ba

Adnan Rovčanin, School of Economics and Business, University of Sarajevo

Professor
School of Economics and Business,
University of Sarajevo
E-mail: adnan.rovcanin@efsa.unsa.ba