MIGRATION PATTERNS IN EASTERN EUROPE AND THE WORLD: A GRAVITY APPROACH

Abstract

This study uses a UN dataset of foreign-born residents in and from 154 different countries, available every fifth year since 1990, to estimate an augmented gravity model for Eastern Europe and the world. Migration responds to higher incomes in the host country, though the effect diminishes with income. Unlike the rest of the world, East European migration increases with the exchange rate in the host and higher incomes in the origin, but not with political autocracy or conflict in the origin country. Controlling for these differences, Eastern Europe has fewer immigrants and emigrants than the model would otherwise predict.