BETWEEN SECURITY AND MOTHERHOOD DECISIONS: ECONOMIC SECURITY AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY INTENTIONS AMONG WOMEN IN CROATIA

Abstract

Croatia faces demographic challenges, including accelerated population ageing and declining fertility rates, which are characteristics of countries undergoing the second demographic transition. This paper analyses economic predictors of women’s fertility intentions by applying logistic regression models that link predictors of economic security and regional development (N = 1,036). The results indicate heterogeneous economic effects: employment security shows a strong and statistically significant positive association with fertility intentions, financial security shows a negative association, while homeownership is not a statistically significant predictor. As parity increases among women living in regional self-government units with below-average development according to the development index, the likelihood of expressing fertility intentions decreases. The robustness of the results was confirmed by the application of Cook’s distance, Hosmer–Lemeshow tests, ROC analysis, and bootstrap resampling. The findings indicate the necessity of designing public policy measures that will have a targeted effect on increasing economic security and reducing regional inequalities.